John Taylor, Professor of Economics at Stanford University and developer of the "Taylor Rule" for setting interest rates | Stanford University
John Taylor, Professor of Economics at Stanford University and developer of the "Taylor Rule" for setting interest rates | Stanford University
A new Stanford-led study indicates that traditional dams and reservoirs, known as grey infrastructure, will be insufficient to meet future global demands for hydropower and agricultural irrigation. Published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, the research emphasizes the need for alternative approaches, including renewable energy sources and nature-based water storage solutions.
"Water storage is a critical and globally limited resource," said Rafael Schmitt, lead author of the study and a scientist at Stanford's Natural Capital Project. "Our study shows that the solutions of the past are insufficient, and can be damaging to already overstretched freshwater ecosystems."
Dams and reservoirs currently play significant roles in providing hydropower, irrigation water, drinking water, and flood control. However, they also have adverse ecological and societal impacts by disrupting fish migrations and displacing communities.
Schmitt and co-author Lorenzo Rosa analyzed the multipurpose roles of 6,000 of the world's largest dams using machine learning. Their findings revealed that dammed reservoirs globally store about 1,000 times the volume of California’s Shasta Lake but deliver less than 5% of this volume to irrigated crops. The dams provide 505 gigawatts of hydropower—40% of current global capacity.
Despite potential developments that could increase stored water for irrigation by about 40% and energy by approximately 60%, significant deficits are projected in regions like India, central Europe, and several Asia-Pacific nations. The study forecasts a 70% increase in global demand for stored irrigation water by 2050.
"Our study by no means advocates for building more dams," said Schmitt. "What we urgently need is a global debate about how to meet water storage needs for critical sectors."
The authors suggest policies promoting renewable energy technologies; nature-based solutions such as increasing soil water retention; small storage ponds; managed aquifer recharge; and improved agricultural water management as sustainable alternatives.
Rosa highlighted the importance of understanding the dual role of water storage: "Because 40% of the world’s food production depends on irrigation, understanding the dual role of water storage for irrigation and energy is paramount."
The research was funded by donors to the Natural Capital Project.
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Contact:
Rafael Schmitt - rschmitt@stanford.edu
Elana Kimbrell - elanak@stanford.edu
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